Cameron’s plans for gay marriage could cost party 1 million votes, up to 30 seats

An opinion poll carried out by ComRes has found that PM Cameron’s plans to legalise homosexual marriage by 2015 could lose the Conservative party 1 million votes at the next election, and up to 30 seats in the Commons. For every disaffected Tory supporter attracted back to the party, it loses almost three because of its stance on the issue.

In The Sun today, Trevor Kavanagh says Tory supporters are “deserting in droves over [David Cameron's] irrelevant campaign for gay marriage” and other unpopular issues.

A Home Counties Tory MP said: ‘We’re worried we’ll haemorrhage votes unless Cameron backs down. These protests are not from the usual suspects of complainants. These are from quiet, unassuming Tory supporters telling us, do this and we won’t vote for you again.’

The Mail on Sunday has been told that Chief Whip Patrick McLoughlin has privately assured anxious Tory backbenchers that the Prime Minister’s same-sex marriage plan will ‘not come to a vote’.

The MPs say Mr McLoughlin told them the controversial proposal will be ‘kicked into the long grass’.

One exchange of correspondence reveals how Tory Mps are changing their stance on gay marriage in response to pressure from their constituents.  GP Philip Lee, who is the Conservative MP for Bracknell in Berkshire, hardened his stance after protests from a constituent.

In a letter dated March 30 to the constituent, who had written to the MP expressing his opposition to the policy, Dr Lee said: ‘I agree with the Prime Minister that society is made stronger by people’s commitment to one another. This is true whether the couple making the commitment is a man and a woman, a man and a man or a woman and a woman. For most of my constituents there are more pressing issues of concern.’

Barely three weeks later Dr Lee wrote to the same constituent, admitting the ‘vast majority of people’ were against the plan. He wrote: ‘With the strength of opposition from so many of my constituents, I have had to review my own position.’

He also set out the view, held by many Tory MPs, that as civil partnerships give homosexual couples the same legal rights as married heterosexuals, the gay marriage plan was pointless.

Last week another Tory MP, Karl McCartney, expressed his opposition to the plan in a statement released to his local paper. Mr McCartney, who is a magistrate, drew attention to a petition against gay marriage organised by umbrella group the Coalition for Marriage.

By yesterday the petition had attracted almost 475,000 signatures, including that of the Queen’s cousin, Lady Elizabeth Shakerley.

Mr McCartney said: ‘It is clear from both my postbag and the Coalition for Marriage petition… that a significant body of opinion in our city and up and down our country share my views.’

Last night, No  10 sources insisted Mr Cameron remained fully committed to the proposal.

Protect the Pope comment: The trouble with David Cameron and other Tory MPs supporting gay marriage is that they live in the Westminster bubble which they’ve created with likeminded media types and lobbyists. The problem is that the Westminster bubble is detached from the real world, where flesh and blood Tory voters live. It is delusional to think that traditional Tory voters are going to support the legal re-definition of marriage, one of the bedrocks of the Tory heartlands.

Here’s hoping that the rumours are true and that this absurd social engineering experiment worthy of the Labour party is kicked into the long-grass. If Cameron’s persists with his plans in the face of such opposition, then he could lose the Tories the next General Election.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2136773/U-turn-Tory-MPs-tell-constituents-We-wrong-gay-marriage-bid-win-voters.html?printingPage=true

http://www.christian.org.uk/news/redefining-marriage-may-cost-tories-up-to-30-seats/

 

41 comments to Cameron’s plans for gay marriage could cost party 1 million votes, up to 30 seats

  • Karla

    I hope they look at this polling data and reverse their desicion to go ahead with legalizing same sex marriage – otherwise they can say bye bye, arrivederci, auf wiedersehen, adios to the next election.

  • Asrajit

    If Cameron persists in his gay marriage plans, he deserves to lose the next election. Tories take for granted that conservative Catholics will vote for them come what may. Not true. Sometimes we need/deserve an Obama like figure to wake us-and the bishops- up.

  • Jim P

    I challenge you all to read the polling data http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Impact_of_SSM_on_party_support_29_April_2012.pdf rather than the Daily Mail’s report and see if you reach the same conclusion.

    My take on the data is that the for most people of all political colours this issue will not change their voting behaviour either way. Have a look and see if you agree. Great thing about the internet is you can form your own opinion.

    • Karla

      Neither article referenced says ‘most people…’ it says it may cost the party 1 million people, which is still a huge number.

      • Jim P

        1 million /is/ a huge number and /could/ swing an election. But I guess if you carried out a poll asking if the problems at Heathrow immigration would make you less likely to vote Tory, you would get data suggestng that 1 million people would switch their voting habits. But do you really think it is such a big issue (that is just a hunch BTW, a hypothesis that might be wrong and for which I have no data)

        Truth is aside from a few gay people (perhaps about 1 million people in total) and a few religiously motivated busibodies (perhaps a few million in total) everyone else are not especially bothered. That is changing though. I am a straight man with no particular interest in gay rights. But thanks to the nasty statements of your pope and bishops, it is slowly dawning on us that we must take a stand in favour of gay rights on this, because if your side wins you will be emboldened to start interfering in our rights in other ways (sex education, contraception, etc must surely be next on your list). Time to stand up to the religious bullies now I think.

        You won’t win and you will do terrible damage to your religion in the battle which is coming which is a shame because there is much positive in Christianity when it isn’t going though one of its bossy, dictatorial phases. And Catholicism most certainly is going through one of those phases.

    • sam mace

      I agree with you Jim, the polling data certainly doesn’t suggest that same sex marriage is a major issue for many people. If you look at the net data of who would be deterred and more likely to vote the difference isn’t great at all.

    • Aidan

      Considering that most people won’t vote Conservative, the distribution over the whole population is not really the issue. This data suggests to me that it will hurt the Conservatives – those who voted for them last time are more likely to abandon them than those that did not vote for them are likely to be attracted. Hence, less votes. Certainly I won’t – I voted Tory last time, but they are dead to me now.

      • sam mace

        What it suggests is not necessarily new voters for the Conservatives but traditional conservatives might be put off by this. This makes it relatively meaningless because the vast majority will stick with the tories because there are no other realistic options.

  • sam mace

    The more important issues like the economy will decide the next election, not gay marriage which is a small issue to the vast majority of the population of this country.

    • Karla

      A ‘small issue’ that could change the party winning the General election.

      • sam mace

        It won’t though, votes don’t matter it is where the votes are distributed Karla. One would imagine the votes they will lose will be in places where they have such a big majority that it shall not matter. If you look at the data there are far more pressing issues which shall influence the voter before gay marriage. Also while people say this now, there will be around 2 years until the next election after this legislation in which case 95% will have forgotten about this piece of legislation.

        • Karla

          The Catholic Church and other pro marriage groups are going to keep this firmly in the public eye, this issue is not going to disappear off the raider.

          • sam mace

            With all due respect the churches and ‘pro’ marriage groups are widely discredited Karla. Surely if people were pro marriage they would endorse marriage to consenting couples, the appropriate term is pro straight marriage anti gay marriage groups.

      • Jim P

        Karla,

        It seems relevent to ask you (and other people here) if this issue will make you change your voting behavior when you stand in the polling booth in 2 years time?. Feel free to keep your voting intentions secret if you want, but it has been my assumption from your criticism of Labour and especially the Lib Dems that you were a Tory voter. I just can’t see you voting for Labour of the Lib Dems (both with athiest leaders at the moment) however much you are annoyed with Cameron. If this cameron doen’t loose your vote over gay marriage then I find it hard to imagine that he will loose many others.

        • Karla

          I have never voted before, was too young, was not aligned with any political party. Would not vote for Labor or Lib Dems because of their policies and non interest in respecting the institution of marriage and unborn persons. Can’t see voting Conservative either (many so called ‘conservatives’ should rescind that name BTW). The Christian party is closest to my values though not perfect.

          • Karla

            Pope Benedict has laid out the non negotiable concerns for a Christian in politics:

            - protection of life in all its stages, from the first moment of conception until natural death;

            - recognition and promotion of the natural structure of the family – as a union between a man and a woman based on marriage – and its defence from attempts to make it juridically equivalent to radically different forms of union which in reality harm it and contribute to its destabilization, obscuring its particular character and its irreplaceable social role;

            - the protection of the right of parents to educate their children.

            http://www.lifesitenews.com/news/pope-benedict-xvi-on-what-should-be-the-principal-focus-for-catholic-voters

        • harry

          I work in a big office. Lots of things get discussed – rarely gay marriage, and definitely not what the churches think about it,other than a general view that gay marriage would be ‘fair do’s’.

  • sam mace

    Also it probably wouldn’t cost them one singular seat, while they may lose a small number of votes or possibly gain votes it’s unlikely they will lose one seat over the issue of gay marriage or gain one.

  • Mark Thorne

    1 million would be approximately one-ninth of everyone who voted Conservative at the last election. Jim may be right in his assessment though, considering that no other party, other than the Christian People’s Alliance and in a more nuanced way, perhaps, UKIP, are opposed to the legislation – so where would protest votes be registered? I remain to be persuaded that the current rise in support for UKIP is more than a bubble – but would love to see them poll more votes that the Liberal Democrats at the last election.

  • Karla

    UKIP ARE opposed to the gay marriage legalization.

    ‘We are a libertarian party which doesn’t believe in the government interfering in how people live their lives. We support civil partnerships, enabling gay men and women to register their long-term commitment to each other. I have fought for this all my life.

    “But David Cameron seems to be saying that marriage is something else. If so, it is clearly in the domain of the church and other faiths – and it is none of government’s business to meddle with it.

    “It seems that, through some kind of political correctness, David Cameron is picking a fight with the millions of people whose religious faiths do not recognise same-sex marriages. That, in our view, is an aggressive attack on people of faith, and an act of intolerance in itself.

    “In addition, if the government does legislate in this way, we believe that any criticism of same-sex marriage which may be expressed by someone on the basis of their faith could be classified as a ‘hate crime’. That would be a grotesque assault on people’s freedom of conscience.’

    http://www.ukip.org/content/latest-news/2625-pm-picking-fight-over-samesex-marriage

  • Spesalvi23

    Well, if People are more concerned about the (non) economy it would make sense to focus on that, wouldn’t it?
    I wonder what the average person will be more concerned about when the EU bubble will burst?
    Gender mainstreaming, social engineering and/or bullying people into accepting homosexual unions as normal, or trying to keep your citizens from slipping into even lower standards of living?
    Left wing utopia is not going to solve any problems at all.
    Cannibal capitalism is not working as well.
    For one common reason: morality in all parts of life has been subject to relativism.
    It will be interesting to see how things will develop!

  • Karla

    Brits don’t want to fund abortion with taxes

    Majority of Brits don’t want abortion paid for on the public dime

    LONDON – A recently published Angus Reid poll showed that 57 percent believe the National Health Service should only fund abortions in the case of medical emergencies. Forty-eight percent support reducing the gestational time limit on legal abortion to less than 24 weeks. Only 33 percent believe that there should be no restrictions.

    Forty-two per cent of 2,018 randomly selected British adults said there is “no point in re-opening the debate on abortion; 40 percent thought a public debate in the UK is “long overdue”.

    When asked about their personal feeling on abortion, 35 percent want more restrictions; 21 percent would permit abortion only in cases of rape, incest and to save the woman’s life and 5 percent would allow it only to save the woman’s life.

    Government statistics show that nearly all of the abortions carried out in Britain are for “social or economic” grounds, with the use of so-called “medical abortion,” that is, abortions using deadly drugs to kill the child and induce premature labor, becoming increasingly popular. The majority of abortions are carried out in private facilities, run by groups like the British Pregnancy Advisory Service and Marie Stopes, who contract with the NHS. If the NHS were to cease funding all “social” abortions, these organizations would lose millions in annual revenue.

    In 1991, an effort to reduce the gestational time limit for abortions from 28 to 24 weeks was successful, but the votes were bought at the price of allowing all eugenic abortion without any time restrictions. Under the current law, a child suspected of having a disability, including easily treatable problems like a cleft palate or clubfoot, can be killed up to the point of full-term gestation.

    http://www.lifesitenews.com/news/roundup-brits-dont-want-to-fund-abortion-with-taxes-bulgaria-attacks-parent

    Poll: https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:O4TQsKHDZb8J:www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/2012.03.20_Abortion_BRI.pdf+&hl=en&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESjrhXD-1-Bxod5BJjy6PbjiTk_9YgWtiADWxsgBfbSA6mdw3GnpY7qzoIwRslKREnOG_xlq4mu1RH4bKOAGwWR0X_BW1WSMSkWuh8if3ki3vSwQxW3PkVD_PVe3DSTnz3rK5eQY&sig=AHIEtbTvZpMgX1-6hj0Jiun5BcCs6IsZkg

  • Mark Thorne

    Karla,

    Thank you for adding the link concerning same-sex marriage, detailing UKIP’s opposition to it. Maybe I was thinking that this could be an issue that they may waver over, although I suspect that they’re shrewd/intrepid enough to realise that they could pick up a lot of disenchanted social Conservatives like us. Indeed, I studied UKIP’s manifesto in detail at the last election – they are now the party that I would feel confident would best preserve the vestiges of the Judaeo-Christian principles on which this nation was founded; they also mentioned that foreign aid would be targeted specifically to persecuted Christian communities (where the coalition failed in this regard re. doubling its aid to Pakistan), and want to remove all traces of political correctness from public life (whatever that means, although I have a hunch, or better a hope, what they’re alluding to!). They are now also the party that truly espouse libertarian principles, as the Tories are simply taking on board the same sorts of State interventionist policies of the preceding government. Maybe their drubbing in the recent election could stimulate a rethink – although if the rumour-mill is right in suggesting that the Conservatives intend to fight the next election in a sort of pact with the Lib Dems, then they can only haemorrhage further support among the ranks of their faithful, in my opinion.

    • Karla

      It is a shame UKIP don’t comment on protecting human life from conception because if they did then they would be the best party to vote for.

    • sam mace

      Why would the Conservatives fight the next election with a pact with the Lib Dems? The Lib Dems have no vote left, the Tories are going to concentrate on fiscal policy to try and regain the center right vote upon that basis. The Lib Dems are finished electorally and are being hung out to dry.

      • harry

        I think Sam’s right abuot the LD vote. A lot of people who voted labour would cheerfully back the Libs in the past; but now see them as proxy Tory votes.

  • Karla

    Westminster Cathedral to host religious freedom rally

    http://www.ewtnnews.com/catholic-news/World.php?id=5385

  • Karla

    Archbishop Mario Conti went on to warn that religion is being driven from the U.K. public sphere by a new form of secularist tyranny.

    Read more: http://www.ncregister.com/daily-news/u.k.-society-post-christian

  • Gail

    Cameron really does have to listen to the good, decent, ordinary, god fearing people who make up the vast, vast majority of voters in this country or he will deliver us all into the arms of the godless and the sodomites. Our godless deputy prime minister Nick Clegg is no doubt whispering all kinds of horrible evil things into the PM’s ear day after day. We can only hope and pray that DC will turn a deaf ear to that terrible man and finally come to understand that gay marriage is an ABOMINATION and that the House of Lords needs MORE Bishops NOT less to ensure that this country does not lose its moral backbone ALTOGETHER! I fear for the future of this country and pray that God will deliver us from the horrible people who want to take it away from its Christian origins on which it was based and always will be based and that one day we will again have dominion over this wonderful land of ours!

  • Karla

    Cameron ‘prepared to back down on support for gay marriage law to appease MPs over Tories’ pasting at the polls’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2140264/David-Cameron-backing-gay-marriage-law-appease-MPs-angry-Tories-pasting-polls.html

    • harry

      But maybe not for the reason this site would like.

      “Mr Osborne said it was clearly ‘not the case’ that voters had deserted the Conservatives in the elections as a result of gay marriage proposals or Lords reform.
      But he said that while Parliament would debate the planned shake-up of the upper chamber, it was not a ‘priority’.
      He added: ‘We are focused on the really important issues that matter to people.
      ‘Parliament can discuss these issues, Parliament is very good at discussing these issues, but it is certainly not my priority, the priority of the Government.

      • Karla

        Mr Osborne is entitled to his opinion but that is all it is, an opinion. People deserted the conservative party and I think the changing of the definition of marriage is a part of the reason. The government was warned this was happened.

        • harry

          Karla

          My motto is ‘never give a Tory an even break’, but the marriage thing is a very very minor issue in losing them votes.

  • harry

    Have I had a post ‘censored’? :)

    • Deacon Nick

      Yes, due to your linking of mad fascists and opposition to homosexual ‘marriage’. Deacon Nick

      • harry

        I can’t recall the exact wording Nick, but my theme was ‘what sort of people’ the pm might get votes from. Nothing to do with catholics and a lot to do with pointing out the pitfalls of wishful thinking.

        This, for example is a woozy:

        “Mark Thorne

        May 5,2012 at 9:23 pm ·Reply

        Karla,

        Thank you for adding the link concerning same-sex marriage,detailing UKIP’s opposition to it. Maybe I was thinking that this could be an issue that they may waver over,although I suspect that they’re shrewd/intrepid enough to realise that they could pick up a lot of disenchanted social Conservatives like us. Indeed,I studied UKIP’s manifesto in detail at the last election –they are now the party that I would feel confident would best preserve the vestiges of the Judaeo-Christian principles on which this nation was founded;they also mentioned that foreign aid would be targeted specifically to persecuted Christian communities (where the coalition failed in this regard re. doubling its aid to Pakistan),and want to remove all traces of political correctness from public life (whatever that means,although I have a hunch,or better a hope,what they’re alluding to!). They are now also the party that truly espouse libertarian principles,as the Tories are simply taking on board the same sorts of State interventionist policies of the preceding government. Maybe their drubbing in the recent election could stimulate a rethink –although if the rumour-mill is right in suggesting that the Conservatives intend to fight the next election in a sort of pact with the Lib Dems,then they can only haemorrhage further support among the ranks of their faithful,in my opinion.”

  • ms catholic state

    I think Osborne and Cameron’s obsession with gay marriage is perverse and anti-Christian in character. I believe they are totally committed to it, and will at the first opportunity introduce it. When people do not believe in God…or think He is irrelevant, they then view themselves as the greatest moral authorities there is, and overestimate their puny power. And they hate to be told otherwise.

    The 2 of them really give me the chills.

    • harry

      I share your opinion of the PM and the future 18th Baronet Osborne Ms, but not for the same reason.

      You need to remember though that as well as being a pair of posh boys, they’re politicians from a class thats been producing politicians [succesfully] for a long time. Thats not me saying good things about them BTW.

  • John

    They “Cameron and Clegg” do not read the bible Obviously, God destroyed Sodom and Gomorroh for their acceptance of Homosexuality, it was an abomination in his eyes, it shows you how Godless and unrighteous this government has become, but it was that the moment the took power in Coalation, people are dying because of their reforms in the welfare state, sad to say the UK is doomed the moment they go ahead with this.

    may God have mercy

    Amen

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